Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Magdeburg vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa45d1167725d05441c1ebe8895c0a41b80130eba42e1b1e480436459291b7f04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 25c | 905.76$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.61 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 850$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 63c | 714.37$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.37 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 72c | 694.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.44 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 566.79$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.27 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 28c | 500$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 62c | 456.34$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.97 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 69c | 398.55$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.55 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 80c | 380.33$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.07 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 3c | 350.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 37c | 308.37$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.1 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 59c | 302.76$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.32 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Under | 18c | 245.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 37c | 228.08$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 63c | 198.41$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 37c | 189.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 37c | 124.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 37c | 90.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 37c | 83.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…abcbbacked Over | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 63c | 60.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 64c | 52.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 78c | 48.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 38c | 40.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 38c | 40.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 38c | 40.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 39c | 39.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 39c | 39.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 39c | 39.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 39c | 39.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 72c | 35.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 78c | 34.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…bde7backed Over | 62c | 32.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. VfL Bochum: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Magdeburg (-1.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
- Spread: 1. FC Magdeburg (-2.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
- Spread: VfL Bochum (-1.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.