Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Magdeburg vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x319146afc62901ee62719e2cd29d38b6567ad770cd4be318527e578fc2a2c75c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b7f…657ebacked Under | 1c | 4,002$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 21c | 609.52$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.52 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 4c | 414.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 25c | 368.62$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.62 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 80c | 352.33$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.43 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Over | 26c | 199.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.1 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 74c | 199.04$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.97 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 75c | 181$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.75 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec97…1cfabacked Under | 75c | 159$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…08e1backed Over | 25c | 159$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 26c | 152.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.53 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 75c | 97.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 20c | 85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 80c | 85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 26c | 60.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…6ababacked Under | 80c | 60.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cc…1958backed Under | 80c | 60.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 57c | 51.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 24c | 51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…04e4backed Over | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +10.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Under | 63c | 41.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 57c | 26.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd40e…39a4backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 4.5this page
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. VfL Bochum: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Magdeburg (-1.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
- Spread: 1. FC Magdeburg (-2.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
- Spread: VfL Bochum (-1.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.