Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Fernandez (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x027bf95a340704b29a3d90893ae524b77eec5208885417c84d8c5c790ff49f91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fernandezof Rybakina, Fernandez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Fernandez | 29c | 634.76$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.61 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Rybakina | 76c | 503.62$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.64 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Fernandez | 45c | 427.83$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.34 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Rybakina | 76c | 213.65$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.38 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…ddd3backed Rybakina | 75c | 185.34$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Rybakina | 45c | 149.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 486 | 37.7%183 W · 303 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30bb…f258backed Rybakina | 51c | 123$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Rybakina | 76c | 118.3$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 205 | 65.4%134 W · 71 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Fernandez | 25c | 103$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 342 | 42.4%145 W · 197 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Rybakina | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Fernandez | 25c | 74.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Rybakina | 17c | 71.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fernandez | 44c | 49.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rybakina | 70c | 46.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7c…ea1bbacked Fernandez | 30c | 41.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17b3…f8d4backed Fernandez | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…e6bbbacked Fernandez | 64c | 38.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…fb3dbacked Rybakina | 57c | 38.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Rybakina | 47c | 30.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdecb…e058backed Rybakina | 75c | 29.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…ce04backed Rybakina | 74c | 19.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Fernandez (+1.5)this page
- Elena Rybakina vs. Leylah Fernandez: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah FernandezElena Rybakina won
- Rybakina vs. Fernandez: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Fernandez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs FernandezFernandez won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.