Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs L1ga Team (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02d3dc258985f603737ea5df75e41ba7bac5f8b55dd3ccfbd378132978c6652c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Pipsqueak+4, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Pipsqueak+4 | 56c | 1,168$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.26 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed L1ga Team | 41c | 1,051$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.83 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed L1ga Team | 2c | 934$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 168 | 35.7%60 W · 108 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed L1ga Team | 6c | 886.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Pipsqueak+4 | 78c | 360.4$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked L1ga Team | 24c | 280.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed L1ga Team | 34c | 233.37$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked L1ga Team | 44c | 232.13$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.14 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed L1ga Team | 35c | 214.66$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Pipsqueak+4 | 67c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Pipsqueak+4 | 70c | 137.07$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Pipsqueak+4 | 53c | 118.42$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Pipsqueak+4 | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…38d6backed L1ga Team | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed L1ga Team | 28c | 62.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d7…615fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 66c | 60.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed L1ga Team | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed L1ga Team | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked L1ga Team | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b2…0ab9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 54c | 46.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…c2a1backed Pipsqueak+4 | 79c | 40.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…24c2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 130 | 61.5%80 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Pipsqueak+4 | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed L1ga Team | 46c | 27.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…bc0dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 72c | 24.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…1718backed Pipsqueak+4 | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs L1ga Team (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.