Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02dd33c71737734d3f444e08a6bf5863f4c657d311da9b6810e9c6488f4ad4ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof Nemiga Gaming, Yellow Submarine
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 20c | 2,674$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.12 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Nemiga Gaming | 30c | 2,387$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.84 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Nemiga Gaming | 16c | 1,946$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.77 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Yellow Submarine | 66c | 1,567$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.9 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Yellow Submarine | 75c | 1,477$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.51 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…02f3backed Nemiga Gaming | 36c | 1,051$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Yellow Submarine | 73c | 820$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.4 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Yellow Submarine | 74c | 815.34$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.81 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Yellow Submarine | 75c | 665$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.25 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Nemiga Gaming | 24c | 632.82$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.92 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 17c | 617$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.22 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Yellow Submarine | 74c | 492.2$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.97 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yellow Submarine | 72c | 321.97$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.46 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 316.18$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e6…59dbbacked Nemiga Gaming | 22c | 309.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Nemiga Gaming | 12c | 221.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Yellow Submarine | 73c | 198.74$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd7…55f5backed Nemiga Gaming | 12c | 182.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Yellow Submarine | 75c | 158.57$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 26c | 155.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yellow Submarine | 73c | 139.34$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yellow Submarine | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Nemiga Gaming | 16c | 109.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c52…677dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 108.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Nemiga Gaming | 26c | 96.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Yellow Submarine | 71c | 86.84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Nemiga Gaming | 25c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bba…571ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 25c | 66.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 25c | 61.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb2…0b31backed Yellow Submarine | 66c | 57.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Nemiga Gaming | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Nemiga Gaming | 34c | 41.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 175 | 37.1%65 W · 110 L | -13.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nemiga Gaming | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Nemiga Gaming | 36c | 38.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked Yellow Submarine | 66c | 24.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yellow Submarine | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…dc17backed Yellow Submarine | 66c | 16.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 73 | 76.7%56 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - European Pro League Group AYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.