Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02f02bee4aa353c05328b46836f43c5b9fb6891522262ecd7a0c45f2fa0146f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof Yellow Submarine, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb569…5695backed Yellow Submarine | 26c | 3,352$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.42 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Yellow Submarine | 1c | 2,777$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yellow Submarine | 15c | 1,095$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.52 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Yellow Submarine | 16c | 681.51$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.63 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed L1ga Team | 61c | 657.93$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.02 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Yellow Submarine | 38c | 435.07$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked L1ga Team | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…252bbacked Yellow Submarine | 6c | 282.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Yellow Submarine | 40c | 250.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Yellow Submarine | 41c | 245.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed Yellow Submarine | 26c | 224.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked L1ga Team | 58c | 207.43$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Yellow Submarine | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356e…a471backed Yellow Submarine | 35c | 138.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8b35backed Yellow Submarine | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked L1ga Team | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…c6dabacked L1ga Team | 79c | 48.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked L1ga Team | 62c | 27.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs L1ga Team (BO3)L1ga Team won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs L1ga Team - Game 2 WinnerL1ga Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.