Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea0368758b227d954ae15732d2cfa22387709be73858d74053e9cb976c59e18b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof Yellow Submarine, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb569…5695backed Yellow Submarine | 60c | 3,959$2,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,387.05 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked L1ga Team | 45c | 2,973$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.33 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked L1ga Team | 43c | 2,606$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.1 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Yellow Submarine | 64c | 1,573$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Yellow Submarine | 42c | 1,568$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.23 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Yellow Submarine | 44c | 1,405$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.37 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked L1ga Team | 71c | 936.51$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.25 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…7d67backed L1ga Team | 57c | 870.47$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Yellow Submarine | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed L1ga Team | 39c | 562.62$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.2 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked L1ga Team | 43c | 508.76$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.79 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ab…eb07backed L1ga Team | 42c | 341.69$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.6 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea61…cc32backed Yellow Submarine | 44c | 226.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yellow Submarine | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…3d20backed L1ga Team | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Yellow Submarine | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed L1ga Team | 53c | 147.3$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.91 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0be…e6c2backed L1ga Team | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed Yellow Submarine | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Yellow Submarine | 42c | 115.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc36b…a540backed L1ga Team | 54c | 108.96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee8…6c2ebacked L1ga Team | 55c | 108.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked L1ga Team | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed L1ga Team | 62c | 70.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…c6dabacked L1ga Team | 48c | 45.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x625a…7bb3backed L1ga Team | 58c | 43.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yellow Submarine | 40c | 35.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Yellow Submarine | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be9…40cbbacked L1ga Team | 57c | 34.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Yellow Submarine | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf987…6ea7backed L1ga Team | 52c | 19.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs L1ga Team (BO3)L1ga Team won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs L1ga Team - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.