Bundesliga · resolved market
1899 Hoffenheim vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03097c27cdb6dbd4f73dc5aac7c24b04b9033f86209957fbc7ab282351c5b9eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 48c | 700$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 34c | 512.19$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.65 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 51c | 358.26$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.75 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 51c | 332.96$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.81 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 75c | 280.57$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.57 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…04bcbacked Under | 45c | 222.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 18c | 212.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc225…4e1ebacked Under | 33c | 194.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Over | 53c | 187$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +257.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 72c | 150.65$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 107.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 51c | 105$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…c9f0backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 56.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 49c | 51.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 52c | 46.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 44c | 44.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 46c | 37.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 68c | 29.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1899 Hoffenheim vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5this page
- 1899 Hoffenheim vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-0.5)1899 Hoffenheim won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.