La Liga · resolved market
CD Castellón vs. Granada CF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x031172fb9dbb3abb16bd46717da0fa95c6a8d0ad0e5f77b1be8897400b9904a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 32c | 4,558$1,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,110.07 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 53c | 3,283$1,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,735.08 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 25c | 1,912$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.75 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 36c | 537.29$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.65 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 34c | 282.64$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…8e52backed Under | 74c | 224.44$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.09 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 44c | 219.81$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.17 | 223 | 57%127 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 68c | 207.11$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 71c | 199.23$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 74c | 133.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 107.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…beaebacked Over | 51c | 94.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 71c | 88.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 203 | 60.1%122 W · 81 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 71c | 88.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 227 | 58.1%132 W · 95 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 71c | 88.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 178 | 56.7%101 W · 77 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 71c | 88.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ece…068abacked Under | 42c | 69.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Under | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Under | 72c | 34.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 43c | 33.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Under | 43c | 33.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over | 42c | 29.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Over | 72c | 14.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…5271backed Over | 72c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Castellón vs. Granada CF: O/U 4.5this page
- CD Castellón vs. Granada CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CD Castellón vs. Granada CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Castellón vs. Granada CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- CD Castellón vs. Granada CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: CD Castellón (-1.5)Granada CF won
- Spread: Granada CF (-1.5)CD Castellón won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.