NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Utah: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x032be96e4e63ec7f58d5bbc1f4e9ae431c2122e27aebe186562945ab13bb5555
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 42c | 5,588$2,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,239.6 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 2,011$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.49 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 60c | 1,368$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.38 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 1,208$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.63 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 56c | 1,018$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.86 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Under | 55c | 991$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.05 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 55c | 980.16$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.07 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 55c | 902.03$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.23 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 58c | 529.11$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 60c | 482.3$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.38 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked Over | 56c | 340.18$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.68 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 44c | 261.63$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.12 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 46c | 216.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 54c | 120.9$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 49c | 97.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 54c | 92.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e0…2bb0backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Under | 76c | 41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 345 | 38.6%133 W · 212 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0c…ad39backed Over | 58c | 40.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fb…5a80backed Under | 42c | 37.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4a50backed Under | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…3409backed Over | 58c | 35.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9643…376cbacked Under | 42c | 33.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 40c | 33.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 57c | 31.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Under | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Under | 43c | 25.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 77c | 21.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Utah: O/U 5.5this page
- Avalanche vs. UtahAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Utah: O/U 4.5Over won
- Avalanche vs. Utah: O/U 6.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Utah: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.