Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x032f09e12b8d9eaed9e0d7174cd1dd43ff5c6518486bd1393fc570ad67bd0fbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 13c | 321.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 21c | 300$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 23c | 211.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 174.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 164.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 18c | 121.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 84.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 49c | 84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 22c | 78.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 20c | 70.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 68.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 22c | 63.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03a8…84bcbacked Yes | 37c | 61.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…bce8backed No | 80c | 53.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed No | 56c | 50.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 79c | 44.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed Yes | 62c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b8bbbacked Yes | 41c | 37.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 35c | 30.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed No | 69c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 69c | 20.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8f…53c6backed No | 69c | 17.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on February 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on February 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.