MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0355f4a41b120f2a571846080af4c7ac2ae810e9b60f50bd1f363e2bf294e258
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x276b…c0c8backed No | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 44c | 368.81$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.84 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed No | 5c | 271.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 43c | 262.35$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.44 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked No | 57c | 260$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.1 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked No | 57c | 252.35$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.04 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 23c | 241.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 407 | 53.6%218 W · 189 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…28eabacked No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 61c | 121$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked Yes | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 219 | 48.4%106 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 43c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 47c | 94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 49c | 81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…19f2backed No | 55c | 39.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Yes | 41c | 38.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed No | 57c | 35.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…fd77backed No | 55c | 30.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc10c…9bb3backed No | 55c | 30.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…1a36backed No | 55c | 27.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…9483backed No | 55c | 25.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…7310backed No | 55c | 23.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…88a0backed No | 55c | 23.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 62cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…d900backed No | 55c | 23.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…8b41backed No | 55c | 23.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…d21cbacked No | 55c | 22.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…40adbacked No | 55c | 22.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2768…6bc6backed No | 55c | 22.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f7…5ae3backed No | 55c | 22.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc5…1ea2backed No | 55c | 22.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0381…f76cbacked No | 55c | 22.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcb…0694backed No | 55c | 22.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5206backed No | 55c | 21.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…4d52backed No | 55c | 21.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 68cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…1f81backed No | 55c | 21.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…3f68backed No | 55c | 20.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4b…fd62backed No | 55c | 20.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…60b6backed No | 55c | 18.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Piratesthis page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.