MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cd8ef8d36852dcc282c1fa77f699a4658c62986966aff481350ff6c2a25c564
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 12,794$5,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,432.62 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 5,863$3,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,490.65 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 57c | 2,533$1,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.21 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Colorado Rockies | 58c | 1,862$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.03 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 1,202$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Colorado Rockies | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 769.02$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.99 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 689.71$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.68 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Colorado Rockies | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Colorado Rockies | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 393.61$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.51 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Colorado Rockies | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.09 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 313.55$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.39 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 284.52$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.66 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 277.11$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.73 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Colorado Rockies | 38c | 261.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 155.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 145.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 16c | 114.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 101.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Colorado Rockies | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Colorado Rockies | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…be55backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 99.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Colorado Rockies | 35c | 70.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 68.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Colorado Rockies | 58c | 66.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Colorado Rockies | 40c | 65.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Colorado Rockies | 54c | 63.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Colorado Rockies | 39c | 55.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Colorado Rockies | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 42.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 35.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…ce0fbacked Colorado Rockies | 58c | 34.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 33.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8a…7d07backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…2f33backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 19.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.