TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Colorado Rockies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,452
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,174

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,452 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc807…c12bbacked Colorado Rockies47c24,343$11,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,427.4950553.5%270 W · 235 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates53c12,620$6,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,931.41838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates54c7,525$4,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,489.424,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Pittsburgh Pirates52c6,423$3,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,083.0123738%90 W · 147 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Colorado Rockies45c4,348$1,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,956.621040%84 W · 126 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Colorado Rockies48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4401,07848.1%518 W · 560 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Colorado Rockies44c2,592$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.392,37547.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies46c1,914$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.26,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates53c1,394$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.1911,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Pittsburgh Pirates55c1,209$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.1377951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Pittsburgh Pirates57c1,193$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.9825149.8%125 W · 126 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Pittsburgh Pirates54c1,086$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.492,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Colorado Rockies48c1,005$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.473748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Colorado Rockies42c999.97$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.9971044.5%316 W · 394 L-23.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates63c846.44$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.3312,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates52c833.44$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.0514340.6%58 W · 85 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8cf…e4a2backed Pittsburgh Pirates53c805.98$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.817450%37 W · 37 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Colorado Rockies45c800$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36087453%463 W · 411 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Colorado Rockies48c799.99$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.191,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Pittsburgh Pirates55c700.15$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.4265749.2%323 W · 334 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates62c643.82$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.168,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd38…99d4backed Pittsburgh Pirates57c600$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25826759.2%158 W · 109 L+17.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Pittsburgh Pirates55c506.72$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.483,50951%1,789 W · 1,720 L+53.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Pittsburgh Pirates52c499.96$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.9862447.6%297 W · 327 L-2.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Pittsburgh Pirates57c400$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17259150.3%297 W · 294 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Pittsburgh Pirates53c395.11$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.728154.4%153 W · 128 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Pittsburgh Pirates53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3694734.4%326 W · 621 L-0.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates58c274$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.081,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0da0…444bbacked Colorado Rockies45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Pittsburgh Pirates54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates53c194.34$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.341,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Colorado Rockies47c188.6$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6425249.6%125 W · 127 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Pittsburgh Pirates53c179$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1372154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Pittsburgh Pirates57c160$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.676,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates55c156.22$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.38,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies44c137.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8710,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Pittsburgh Pirates56c118.01$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9232351.7%167 W · 156 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Colorado Rockies46c115.19$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.941,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Colorado Rockies25c110.89$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9584122.7%191 W · 650 L-81.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates67c106.94$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.721,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451,84550.7%936 W · 909 L-4.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40db…7980backed Pittsburgh Pirates55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4711948.7%58 W · 61 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e45…39dabacked Colorado Rockies35c99.85$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9418547.6%88 W · 97 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Pittsburgh Pirates58c96$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.321,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda39…1865backed Pittsburgh Pirates56c90$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.61060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x985c…e5d2backed Pittsburgh Pirates56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2954654.9%300 W · 246 L+12.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Pittsburgh Pirates57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7256946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates57c86.53$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.061,14948.9%562 W · 587 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e46…42dfbacked Colorado Rockies46c86.46$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7717250.6%87 W · 85 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x480e…90c7backed Pittsburgh Pirates57c84.21$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2118860.1%113 W · 75 L+12.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates53c75.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4779943.2%345 W · 454 L-2.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3146…d153backed Colorado Rockies45c67.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.317749.7%88 W · 89 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x389d…995fbacked Colorado Rockies46c65.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2813144.3%58 W · 73 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0439…3f80backed Colorado Rockies47c62.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Pittsburgh Pirates55c60$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccc4…77cabacked Colorado Rockies43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.84259.5%25 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b3…4756backed Colorado Rockies46c59.96$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5813046.9%61 W · 69 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27cf…979abacked Colorado Rockies46c58.96$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0412049.2%59 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Pittsburgh Pirates52c58.39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0361652.8%325 W · 291 L+31.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates53c57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7972247.6%344 W · 378 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ff…ec82backed Pittsburgh Pirates55c56$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.221554.9%118 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Colorado Rockies45c55.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2566748.7%325 W · 342 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates55c54.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.751,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4ec…1cc8backed Pittsburgh Pirates53c54.72$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.721450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…3d0ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates57c51.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0226553.2%141 W · 124 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7242…ac6fbacked Colorado Rockies48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2413152.7%69 W · 62 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f5…bb11backed Pittsburgh Pirates56c49.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2255953.1%297 W · 262 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Pittsburgh Pirates64c49$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6478146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Pittsburgh Pirates64c48.57$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4745952.9%243 W · 216 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Pittsburgh Pirates58c48.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3794648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Pittsburgh Pirates58c48.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.371,21250%606 W · 606 L+5.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75b5…a1f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates53c48$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.567948.1%38 W · 41 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc78…f1f5backed Pittsburgh Pirates53c47.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1726351.3%135 W · 128 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc96b…438abacked Pittsburgh Pirates53c47.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1727452.6%144 W · 130 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50fd…ee77backed Colorado Rockies44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033051.8%171 W · 159 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Colorado Rockies47c41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.250748.7%247 W · 260 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates65c39.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7462554.2%339 W · 286 L+18.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Colorado Rockies48c37.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0344347.9%212 W · 231 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Pittsburgh Pirates54c37.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1237357.4%214 W · 159 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07c9…9f5bbacked Colorado Rockies44c36.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1631650.6%160 W · 156 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Colorado Rockies44c31.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1489950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0199…4e86backed Colorado Rockies48c31.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517460.3%105 W · 69 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates56c31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.644,40544.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L+80.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Pittsburgh Pirates57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.980255%441 W · 361 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Pittsburgh Pirates51c28.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0555052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…8f36backed Pittsburgh Pirates53c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.311855.9%66 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed Pittsburgh Pirates53c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.348651%248 W · 238 L-18.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93dc…3728backed Pittsburgh Pirates55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.273360.6%20 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked Pittsburgh Pirates57c26.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4766159.5%393 W · 268 L+3.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8a11…9282backed Pittsburgh Pirates57c26.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3231652.5%166 W · 150 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3255…ffb9backed Pittsburgh Pirates57c26.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2618153.6%97 W · 84 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b25…10aabacked Pittsburgh Pirates57c26.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2515650%78 W · 78 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14f6…f9f7backed Colorado Rockies46c26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.964443.2%19 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eb4…9cb8backed Colorado Rockies48c21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.086051.7%31 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Pittsburgh Pirates58c19.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9382551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.