Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 3 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x038c972956408e8bb440f5cdff6340b46a5a3d35aaabc5fbc6acd488095139b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RE.Ariseof RE.Arise, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 16c | 3,226$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.05 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked RE.Arise | 67c | 2,372$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.99 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…da4fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 35c | 1,580$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Nemiga Gaming | 26c | 1,562$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.72 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Nemiga Gaming | 6c | 900$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb787…ad0abacked RE.Arise | 80c | 651.23$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.25 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Nemiga Gaming | 26c | 530.37$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.45 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…bb53backed RE.Arise | 60c | 496.77$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.72 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb9…1d15backed Nemiga Gaming | 44c | 457.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…6427backed Nemiga Gaming | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 77 | 70.1%54 W · 23 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked RE.Arise | 63c | 340.97$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.05 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffa…7710backed RE.Arise | 69c | 314.49$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.49 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Nemiga Gaming | 30c | 313.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 204 | 42.2%86 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…efdfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 8c | 313.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 215 | 58.6%126 W · 89 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 25c | 307.11$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Nemiga Gaming | 12c | 263.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed RE.Arise | 71c | 195.2$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked RE.Arise | 69c | 187.46$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed Nemiga Gaming | 35c | 144.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked RE.Arise | 60c | 141.66$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 27c | 132.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked RE.Arise | 67c | 127.29$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Nemiga Gaming | 12c | 113$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed RE.Arise | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed Nemiga Gaming | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked RE.Arise | 73c | 92$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Nemiga Gaming | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed RE.Arise | 79c | 59.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Nemiga Gaming | 36c | 55.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked RE.Arise | 54c | 48.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…7180backed Nemiga Gaming | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked RE.Arise | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed RE.Arise | 72c | 26.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 274 | 59.5%163 W · 111 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed RE.Arise | 62c | 23.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 332 | 3%10 W · 322 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked RE.Arise | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked RE.Arise | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 3 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Nemiga Gaming (BO5) - European Pro League PlayoffsRE.Arise won
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 WinnerRE.Arise won
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 WinnerRE.Arise won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.