Serie A · resolved market
Will Fiorentina vs. Lecce end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03918bb7bfc6ab44baa9c5eaf25d52c1e3b764e4a5107ad4629c3c017f90f51e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 76c | 3,084$2,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.98 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…2421backed Yes | 27c | 2,383$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 24c | 2,014$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.53 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 1,892$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 2,579 | 45.6%1,175 W · 1,404 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 73c | 1,825$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.82 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Yes | 30c | 994.26$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 26c | 935.18$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.15 | 212 | 58.5%124 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 730.33$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.27 | 2,023 | 39.4%798 W · 1,225 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 70c | 586.65$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.01 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…e4c7backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 27c | 234$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked No | 75c | 148.27$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 74c | 97.24$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x877e…d958backed No | 75c | 95.73$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…228ebacked Yes | 31c | 74.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…aafdbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1252…da0bbacked Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…8d57backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 69c | 71.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 248 | 49.2%122 W · 126 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…fe31backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 67c | 38.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 431 | 58.5%252 W · 179 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 69c | 20.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 89 | 65.2%58 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fiorentina vs. Lecce end in a draw?this page
- Will Fiorentina win on 2025-11-02?No won
- Will Lecce win on 2025-11-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.