UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03db59ade93f76a0a231549a64bbb5293f20d01d456bfe8dfd2c7b7dc78e8902
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 50c | 7,290$3,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,631.2 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 6,602$3,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,301 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 2,387$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.29 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 50c | 2,222$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 1,393$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.28 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4f…4598backed Over | 47c | 1,383$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.98 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Over | 51c | 899.07$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.52 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Over | 52c | 239.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…dc59backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 51c | 74.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 70.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…55d7backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 51c | 25.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 54c | 20.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 51c | 19.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- UFC Fight Night: Borislav Nikolic vs. Mark Vologdin (Bantamweight, Prelims)Borislav Nikolic won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.