Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Tsitsipas (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03ddd403172e34d86ef8036c4b2bf0cfc5ee451bf55cab34fb71a25f492c87c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Cerundolo, Tsitsipas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Cerundolo | 53c | 2,148$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.26 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cerundolo | 31c | 455.56$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Tsitsipas | 20c | 435.05$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 251 | 34.3%86 W · 165 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Tsitsipas | 47c | 414.12$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.64 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Tsitsipas | 69c | 402.37$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.54 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Tsitsipas | 56c | 349.06$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.69 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Tsitsipas | 55c | 301.34$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.61 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x100c…1c2cbacked Cerundolo | 33c | 278.76$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.06 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tsitsipas | 53c | 226.84$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Tsitsipas | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Tsitsipas | 65c | 163.42$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.58 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tsitsipas | 42c | 160.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Tsitsipas | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 485 | 52.4%254 W · 231 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…c08dbacked Cerundolo | 37c | 43.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdecb…e058backed Cerundolo | 35c | 41.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Tsitsipas | 50c | 38.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 361 | 35.7%129 W · 232 L | -35.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…6592backed Tsitsipas | 65c | 32.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Tsitsipas | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb847…566dbacked Tsitsipas | 72c | 27.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb4…9653backed Tsitsipas | 72c | 27.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 61 | 73.8%45 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Tsitsipas (+1.5)this page
- Cerundolo vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Cerundolo vs. Tsitsipas: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Francisco Cerundolo vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Stefanos TsitsipasFrancisco Cerundolo won
- Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs TsitsipasCerundolo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.