Bundesliga · resolved market
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x040c9f2bef3fb236976acc5717c26dc5b667e33e8bf0921c1e33f7d8ba8c444d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 12c | 2,303$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.28 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 47c | 2,230$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.47 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 1,130$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.23 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…8380backed Under | 42c | 999.98$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 625.93$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.89 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 453.22$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.55 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…df04backed Over | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…9e9bbacked Over | 58c | 330.76$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Under | 15c | 193.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…0acebacked Over | 52c | 167.4$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 58c | 128.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…1676backed Under | 42c | 108.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a7…ca43backed Over | 58c | 65.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d2…55f7backed Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d16…addabacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7f…d002backed Under | 43c | 37.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Under | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Over | 58c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 2.5this page
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 0.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 1.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 3.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 4.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Nürnberg (-1.5)1. FC Nürnberg won
- Spread: 1. FC Nürnberg (-2.5)SpVgg Greuther Fürth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.