Movies · resolved market
Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $13m and $14m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x041557ca1ddd87dc7649392a66ca289fa7af95b549370f77bc4c5b6e782e4501
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,217$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.15 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,825$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.42 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 62c | 1,200$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.99 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9583…bd4dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,032$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 34c | 857.64$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.77 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 15c | 773.56$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.86 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 26c | 650.97$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.69 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes | 4c | 567.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed No | 49c | 522.28$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.2 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 45c | 472.37$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.34 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 44c | 343.93$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.87 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 70c | 253.81$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 15c | 253.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 26c | 230.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 217.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 13c | 201.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 19c | 165.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 77c | 128.78$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 77c | 127$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed Yes | 52c | 108.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…1c2ebacked Yes | 32c | 94.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…0ae9backed Yes | 39c | 78.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 58c | 71.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…d9cfbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 30c | 46.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fe…ce41backed Yes | 61c | 39.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 25.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0e…de1abacked Yes | 45c | 23.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $13m and $14m?this page
- Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11m and $12m?No won
- Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $12m and $13m?No won
- Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $14m and $15m?Yes won
- Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $15m and $16m?No won
- Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $16m and $17m?No won
- Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than $17m?No won
- Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $10m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.