Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Marni von Wilpert advance from the CA-48 primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x042e84aef0f6fdbdff3892a188d6540b0830c11f9121ae567d7516f2cdbe76e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Yes | 43c | 135.71$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 47c | 97.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 48c | 64.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 57c | 35.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked Yes | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 79c | 29.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…9794backed No | 54c | 28.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe785…7e4abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.36per pick | 55cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39bc…f994backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marni von Wilpert advance from the CA-48 primary election?this page
- Will Ammar Campa-Najjar advance from the CA-48 primary election?No won
- Will Brandon Riker advance from the CA-48 primary election?No won
- Will Corinna Contreras advance from the CA-48 primary election?No won
- Will Kevin O'Neil advance from the CA-48 primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.