Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Xtreme (-1.5) vs South America Rejects (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x042ff9795f4b42a1b039fb802be02eb8d30cd837832555b754d169bf334b6669
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- South America Rejectsof Xtreme Gaming, South America Rejects
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked South America Rejects | 57c | 4,646$2,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,975.05 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd037…5ea2backed Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 2,912$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed South America Rejects | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.99 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50ac…a924backed Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 1,438$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.93 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb278…3ba6backed Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 659.26$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.07 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed South America Rejects | 60c | 597.58$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.16 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd83…7d7cbacked South America Rejects | 58c | 570$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.4 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…a6ddbacked Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 485.02$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…c6c1backed Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 407.45$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Xtreme Gaming | 40c | 274.04$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.61 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 190.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Xtreme Gaming | 41c | 121$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 227 | 52.9%120 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd56f…6ea8backed Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 111.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 110.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed South America Rejects | 58c | 110$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 280 | 44.3%124 W · 156 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4679…cd40backed Xtreme Gaming | 41c | 104.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…07aebacked Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 98.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 94.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Xtreme Gaming | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04d…2b19backed South America Rejects | 59c | 79.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Xtreme Gaming | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 60.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04b…f09bbacked South America Rejects | 59c | 55.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…6e77backed Xtreme Gaming | 41c | 41.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44c…b897backed Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 39.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 37c | 38.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Xtreme (-1.5) vs South America Rejects (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageSouth America Rejects won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects - Game 1 WinnerSouth America Rejects won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects - Game 2 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.