Tennis · resolved market
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Belinda Bencic vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04462e49c3617086e5e042208b83c440781ee37f2e048ae5c6a08dbaa5c64dd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bencicof Bencic, Sasnovich
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Sasnovich | 22c | 6,830$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.84 | 375 | 40.8%153 W · 222 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sasnovich | 8c | 5,972$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.84 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd178…6703backed Bencic | 80c | 3,565$2,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Sasnovich | 19c | 3,507$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.74 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sasnovich | 18c | 2,986$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.68 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Bencic | 76c | 2,678$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.78 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Sasnovich | 15c | 1,883$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.92 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sasnovich | 16c | 1,825$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.35 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Sasnovich | 16c | 1,458$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.57 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Sasnovich | 21c | 1,400$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.6 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Sasnovich | 24c | 1,327$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.75 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…05f6backed Bencic | 76c | 1,301$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Sasnovich | 16c | 1,142$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.86 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Sasnovich | 4c | 1,003$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Bencic | 79c | 891$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.9 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Sasnovich | 14c | 405.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed Bencic | 77c | 387.8$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.19 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Sasnovich | 14c | 386.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Sasnovich | 21c | 383.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.45 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked Bencic | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…86dabacked Bencic | 79c | 283.1$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1544…6f27backed Sasnovich | 10c | 270$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Bencic | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…b079backed Sasnovich | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37c…e365backed Bencic | 78c | 193.33$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Sasnovich | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 59.7%111 W · 75 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Bencic | 80c | 166.33$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Sasnovich | 22c | 161$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Bencic | 77c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Bencic | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Bencic | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Sasnovich | 13c | 105.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Sasnovich | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Sasnovich | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sasnovich | 18c | 82.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed Bencic | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Bencic | 78c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Bencic | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…c0b6backed Bencic | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…e189backed Bencic | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…920cbacked Bencic | 80c | 21.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.