Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04647342c2824c4e92482c4efa450b93922f424586a0ef277cc48f9876097b3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,059 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 658.31$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 17c | 625.42$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.73 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 497.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 23c | 375.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 31c | 322.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 283.21$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 76c | 275.41$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 273.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 6c | 181.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 10c | 153.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea75…f954backed Yes | 8c | 150.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed Yes | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…d8cfbacked No | 76c | 121.33$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 15c | 117.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 69c | 105.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 76c | 98.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 17c | 84.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 77.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef08…efd3backed Yes | 17c | 64.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 24c | 49.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 80c | 47.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 24c | 44.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 55c | 38.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 63c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 49c | 29.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 65c | 21.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…6ea2backed No | 71c | 21.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 78c | 19.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 84°F or higher on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.