Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21170f85214cb1b776a8db31a9b2f424cb2463a91deee04614c56c2cef658485
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,642 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 2c | 1,077$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 68c | 518.61$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.28 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 418$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 26c | 267.34$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 260.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed No | 79c | 257.64$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 26c | 191.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 11c | 186.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 169.8$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f7…b205backed No | 78c | 155.18$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 136.95$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 136.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 18c | 116.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…2f58backed Yes | 46c | 109.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 107.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 72c | 105$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 103.69$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 52c | 99.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 33c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 55c | 88.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed Yes | 26c | 84.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 80.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 71c | 72.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 37c | 70.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 28c | 69.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 35c | 66.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 45c | 66.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 44c | 63.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 33c | 60.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 57.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 54.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 63c | 54.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes | 35c | 54.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 65c | 54.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 37c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 44c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 24c | 48.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 42c | 47.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 47c | 44.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 77c | 43.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 38c | 39.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…bb68backed No | 53c | 35.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 33.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 71c | 30.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 28.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked Yes | 46c | 27.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 56c | 25.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ec…6373backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a7…16eebacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 56c | 22.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 65c | 15.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed68…d3bfbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 84°F or higher on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.