Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf29a85d9e5e896e51c1d99331bf3a1edfd2cb384607d7eb144032866a2b9d528
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,112 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 646$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 39c | 558.13$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.51 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 23c | 527.76$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 397.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 65c | 390$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 377.57$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 276.89$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 39c | 259.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 59c | 258.94$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.94 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 43c | 235.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72e…15aabacked No | 11c | 230.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 214.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…96e3backed No | 49c | 210.51$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.92 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 7c | 195.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 46c | 170$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.62 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 31c | 165.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 51c | 163.88$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.47 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 64c | 158.27$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…0694backed No | 56c | 153.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…5eb7backed No | 45c | 138.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 28c | 137.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.69 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…617cbacked Yes | 78c | 127.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 55c | 124.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 65c | 115.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 35c | 111.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.37 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed Yes | 59c | 109.11$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 43c | 107.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 104.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec4a…49e0backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 40c | 81.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…911cbacked Yes | 41c | 79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 71c | 75.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 75.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a95…23cfbacked Yes | 45c | 73.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 72.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 36c | 69.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 68.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 57c | 61.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 34c | 61.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 26c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…d8cfbacked Yes | 69c | 59.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 68c | 58.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 36c | 56.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked No | 72c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 40c | 52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 45c | 50.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 48c | 45.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 69c | 44.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 42.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 35c | 41.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 47c | 40.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 39c | 38.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 63c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 53c | 35.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 61c | 34.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 49c | 34.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…2f58backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 58c | 31.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 34c | 31.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 50c | 25.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 55c | 25.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34b9…fc5cbacked Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 71c | 21.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 79c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 64c | 19.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 70c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 68c | 18.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 65c | 16.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe124…f4babacked No | 72c | 14.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 84°F or higher on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.