Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Insomnia - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04a744883713a0e72ead9c0d9f7f468c4b77389e0f34d731e9fb347bf9c823e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Crest Gaming Zstof Crest Gaming Zst, Insomnia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06c0…e618backed Crest Gaming Zst | 68c | 870$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.75 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed Insomnia | 32c | 214.37$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Insomnia | 32c | 160$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Insomnia | 28c | 131.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 969 | 45%436 W · 533 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Insomnia | 32c | 125.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 344 | 43.3%149 W · 195 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x787f…d40cbacked Insomnia | 32c | 107.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ef…bff0backed Insomnia | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Insomnia | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 225 | 39.1%88 W · 137 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Insomnia | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 672 | 50.6%340 W · 332 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…614abacked Insomnia | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Crest Gaming Zst | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 305 | 44.3%135 W · 170 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Insomnia - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main StageCrest Gaming Zst won
- Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Insomnia - Map 2 WinnerCrest Gaming Zst won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.