Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04d79d248357f7b1e5ebf2a7ffeeac6e1f92c75a6082859acd072a81e307798d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed AVULUS | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS | 13c | 973.55$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.81 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3532…3711backed Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 726.15$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc736…7255backed AVULUS | 31c | 550.8$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.75 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Nigma Galaxy | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed AVULUS | 37c | 158.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df4…bb2fbacked AVULUS | 34c | 155$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed AVULUS | 32c | 69.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ea…8439backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c49…b222backed Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 306 | 43.5%133 W · 173 L | -22.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs AVULUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group StageNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs AVULUS - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.