Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs AVULUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c038733aa821819d6fe6b9e27b3bd99e0eb4c77178b59b6a2597c6386b65696
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed AVULUS | 0c | 7,416$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9679…9315backed AVULUS | 11c | 885.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed20…0c3ebacked AVULUS | 39c | 882$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf858…ea6abacked AVULUS | 39c | 708$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…376dbacked AVULUS | 39c | 516$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ac…f94fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 493$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf03c…3effbacked Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 389$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238a…63bcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 372$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…6cafbacked Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 338$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa546…fa04backed Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 336$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed AVULUS | 20c | 251.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3532…3711backed AVULUS | 14c | 239.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed AVULUS | 33c | 238.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.72 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked AVULUS | 14c | 231.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bca…7d09backed Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 178$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 48cpaid | +141%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…7d4abacked Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Nigma Galaxy | 69c | 145.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed AVULUS | 15c | 135$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 29.4%69 W · 166 L | -21.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…6373backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…1f13backed AVULUS | 37c | 85.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…f114backed AVULUS | 15c | 64.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 151 | 31.8%48 W · 103 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4287…3d5ebacked AVULUS | 40c | 64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddd…d755backed Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 61.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked AVULUS | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed AVULUS | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked AVULUS | 31c | 46.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 43.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed AVULUS | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…1691backed Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…fab1backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…9168backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 33.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 24.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs AVULUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs AVULUS - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs AVULUS - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.