Tennis · resolved market
ITF Wichita: Lucas Marionneau vs Daniel Milavsky
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04dae961b7d7578b6c6686f510ac43a7720755b83709f2420a2a66bbd0cf9bf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lucas Marionneauof Lucas Marionneau, Daniel Milavsky
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Daniel Milavsky | 50c | 2,526$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.71 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Lucas Marionneau | 49c | 1,506$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.52 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Lucas Marionneau | 41c | 841.61$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.55 | 579 | 50.9%295 W · 284 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Lucas Marionneau | 56c | 611.92$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.07 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Daniel Milavsky | 50c | 292.55$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1,106 | 50.3%556 W · 550 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Lucas Marionneau | 48c | 271.91$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.26 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Daniel Milavsky | 42c | 270.44$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.75 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Daniel Milavsky | 51c | 262.9$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.28 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Daniel Milavsky | 12c | 205$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 637 | 46%293 W · 344 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Lucas Marionneau | 43c | 162.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.65 | 486 | 37.7%183 W · 303 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Daniel Milavsky | 49c | 157.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Lucas Marionneau | 41c | 113.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2c…359fbacked Daniel Milavsky | 46c | 108.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Daniel Milavsky | 59c | 104$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…780ebacked Daniel Milavsky | 63c | 78.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Daniel Milavsky | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103f…86dbbacked Lucas Marionneau | 65c | 51.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 163 | 62%101 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Lucas Marionneau | 70c | 27.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Lucas Marionneau | 55c | 18.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 1,102 | 56.5%623 W · 479 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.