Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hannover 96 vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04df69f665c396aa4d61e13479c2113fa61974ec9c1144fa5d6c4e32a88e55a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked No | 1c | 3,327$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +287.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 29c | 827.59$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.59 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 779.48$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.77 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa85…1890backed No | 11c | 475.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 25c | 424.88$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.49 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 70c | 389$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.02 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Yes | 43c | 265.05$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.14 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked No | 15c | 256.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 63c | 205$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 32c | 189.28$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 54c | 170$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Yes | 61c | 164.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.27 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 75c | 146.69$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.42 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 24c | 138$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.94 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 70c | 101.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 74c | 73.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Yes | 38c | 54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cb…a3c4backed No | 75c | 51.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47f…c246backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed No | 68c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 54c | 32.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked No | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hannover 96 vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw?this page
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2025-12-13?No won
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2025-12-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.