Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AEK Larnaka win on 2025-08-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04f6763e65443c2c66d50bda118fa9cec4d0b7028c47a289172d58a1a163cdf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 20c | 2,949$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.38 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 21c | 2,444$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.1 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 76c | 2,299$1,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.75 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 79c | 1,275$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…fe65backed Yes | 17c | 1,160$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 80c | 1,074$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.8 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 20c | 992$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.29 | 153 | 76.5%117 W · 36 L | +37.4wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa004…290ebacked Yes | 13c | 584.14$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 74c | 576$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.52 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 80c | 482.13$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.43 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 18c | 350$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 14c | 197.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8764…069dbacked Yes | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c90…d54bbacked Yes | 20c | 99.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…e467backed Yes | 20c | 74.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3533…6741backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AEK Larnaka win on 2025-08-21?this page
- Will Brann vs. AEK Larnaka end in a draw?No won
- Will Brann win on 2025-08-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.