Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Brann win on 2025-08-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a215bec6f946cc1cdc6a7c84aac6feb6626f6a603a0d364c7080a832686059a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa0b…4908backed No | 45c | 51,690$23,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,260.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 55c | 28,794$15,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,957.3 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 55c | 12,913$7,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,810.67 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 51c | 10,119$5,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,160.31 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Yes | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 49c | 8,359$4,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,293.08 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 49c | 949.73$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 50c | 925.93$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.96 | 153 | 76.5%117 W · 36 L | +37.4wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Yes | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked No | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Yes | 49c | 345$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 55c | 315.15$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.81 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 35c | 308$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.2 | 121 | 66.9%81 W · 40 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 53c | 215.97$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.03 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes | 56c | 154.55$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…1278backed Yes | 56c | 123.21$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 56c | 117.39$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 140 | 42.1%59 W · 81 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…0b77backed No | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5d…0774backed Yes | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed No | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed No | 61c | 97.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…a10ebacked Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8305…bee1backed Yes | 57c | 85.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…5e4ebacked No | 43c | 85.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b52…011dbacked No | 45c | 71.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…bbb9backed No | 42c | 49.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 78c | 34.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2def…651dbacked Yes | 56c | 28.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 42c | 27.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brann win on 2025-08-21?this page
- Will AEK Larnaka win on 2025-08-21?No won
- Will Brann vs. AEK Larnaka end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.