CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: TEAM XDM vs 5star (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia Cup #1 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04f8545ea245d275e4701eea8e1e1094d12c4760d35d0e5d46365e2ec57762cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TEAM XDMof TEAM XDM, 5star
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5135…7217backed 5star | 64c | 735.32$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed 5star | 49c | 651$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.38 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked TEAM XDM | 36c | 555$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.35 | 495 | 36.4%180 W · 315 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…dd38backed TEAM XDM | 28c | 505.72$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.22 | 370 | 57%211 W · 159 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked TEAM XDM | 47c | 415.85$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.42 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed TEAM XDM | 54c | 392.27$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.98 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c70…9168backed TEAM XDM | 35c | 332.5$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.13 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed 5star | 65c | 306.15$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed TEAM XDM | 36c | 187.19$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.52 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e78…0261backed TEAM XDM | 36c | 165.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…d11bbacked TEAM XDM | 34c | 163.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0063…2dd2backed TEAM XDM | 62c | 110.74$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 402 | 64.7%260 W · 142 L | +49.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked 5star | 60c | 109.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…58aabacked 5star | 39c | 104.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed TEAM XDM | 28c | 96.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked 5star | 32c | 73.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 1,043 | 57.3%598 W · 445 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2793backed 5star | 71c | 70.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda29…f4b8backed TEAM XDM | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked TEAM XDM | 46c | 68.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked TEAM XDM | 26c | 67.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked TEAM XDM | 32c | 63.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 238 | 35.3%84 W · 154 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed TEAM XDM | 36c | 55.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked TEAM XDM | 31c | 52.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed 5star | 42c | 52.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed TEAM XDM | 39c | 51.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 799 | 51.7%413 W · 386 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked TEAM XDM | 38c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3bb0backed 5star | 49c | 50.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 557 | 49.7%277 W · 280 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2c…f5bebacked 5star | 65c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked TEAM XDM | 42c | 42.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 752 | 45.3%341 W · 411 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed TEAM XDM | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked TEAM XDM | 45c | 35.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked 5star | 48c | 33.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed 5star | 48c | 27.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62a…76b5backed 5star | 63c | 25.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 160 | 48.8%78 W · 82 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed TEAM XDM | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked TEAM XDM | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed TEAM XDM | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…9ee3backed 5star | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 189 | 51.3%97 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: TEAM XDM vs 5star (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia Cup #1 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: TEAM XDM vs 5star - Map 1 Winner5star won
- Counter-Strike: TEAM XDM vs 5star - Map 2 WinnerTEAM XDM won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.