Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Norrie (-1.5) vs Wawrinka (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0501df0ca9dc2d09ca5384f73b9efec2fcc1a14a4162eec538adfaadd108fc9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wawrinkaof Norrie, Wawrinka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Wawrinka | 43c | 483.47$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.24 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Wawrinka | 42c | 460.92$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.76 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeff…78f8backed Norrie | 55c | 431.66$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.41 | 436 | 47.2%206 W · 230 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1b…de56backed Wawrinka | 31c | 430.56$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.53 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Norrie | 64c | 305.57$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.68 | 464 | 35.3%164 W · 300 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Wawrinka | 37c | 276.33$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.18 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…14d7backed Wawrinka | 50c | 191.94$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.97 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…fe43backed Norrie | 64c | 189.55$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.31 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f64…1bcbbacked Norrie | 29c | 163.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Wawrinka | 45c | 159.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 255 | 46.3%118 W · 137 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd85a…1d03backed Norrie | 67c | 146.3$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 105 | 71.4%75 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Norrie | 55c | 132.68$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Norrie | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 482 | 42.5%205 W · 277 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b6…70ffbacked Norrie | 71c | 83.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Norrie | 50c | 79.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 222 | 55.4%123 W · 99 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…e5d8backed Norrie | 74c | 66.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Wawrinka | 46c | 52.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 249 | 31.3%78 W · 171 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Wawrinka | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 323 | 33.4%108 W · 215 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Norrie | 58c | 47.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Norrie | 61c | 46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 246 | 32.9%81 W · 165 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…ed83backed Norrie | 70c | 42.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Wawrinka | 49c | 39.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…1d2cbacked Norrie | 76c | 37.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 214 | 55.1%118 W · 96 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Norrie | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…78f9backed Wawrinka | 51c | 28.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Norrie | 50c | 23.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Norrie | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 290 | 39.3%114 W · 176 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Norrie | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Norrie | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Norrie | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Norrie | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 257 | 37%95 W · 162 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Norrie | 64c | 22.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 180 | 59.4%107 W · 73 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Norrie | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1619…ca7bbacked Norrie | 54c | 19.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a6…ad64backed Norrie | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Norrie (-1.5) vs Wawrinka (+1.5)this page
- Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Stan WawrinkaCameron Norrie won
- Cameron Norrie vs. Stan Wawrinka: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Norrie vs. Wawrinka: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Norrie vs. Wawrinka: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Norrie vs WawrinkaNorrie won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.