College Football · resolved market
Central Michigan vs. Northern Illinois
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x050f76121298f7aaa858ee8a86e7003bcc1f2848604aaa37e4466c08ecb05bb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northern Illinoisof Central Michigan, Northern Illinois
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Central Michigan | 2c | 1,497$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…57a7backed Central Michigan | 6c | 683.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Central Michigan | 14c | 295.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Central Michigan | 10c | 258.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Northern Illinois | 80c | 252.15$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Central Michigan | 18c | 191.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…44d9backed Central Michigan | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8237…a0debacked Central Michigan | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x193c…5b89backed Central Michigan | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…757abacked Central Michigan | 30c | 72.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…9974backed Central Michigan | 20c | 50.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Central Michigan | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked Northern Illinois | 79c | 44.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Northern Illinois | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.