Asian League · resolved market
Kawasaki Frontale vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05105a957807f3151a456879f677cf6f03bc55204f12baaaa8bb8029293d99ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 1,702$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.32 | 2,499 | 42.3%1,057 W · 1,442 L | +52.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed Over | 27c | 1,100$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.94 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 76c | 858.73$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.73 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 20c | 706.6$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.46 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 20c | 266.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…b1eebacked Under | 76c | 263.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 213.8$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 73c | 205.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 11c | 193.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 1,354 | 45.4%615 W · 739 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 27c | 126.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 1,707 | 50.6%863 W · 844 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 73c | 88.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 73c | 81.47$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Over | 27c | 79.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 76c | 61.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 76c | 61.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Under | 76c | 61.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…e4a2backed Under | 74c | 46.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…8c33backed Under | 74c | 41.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe82f…85d2backed Under | 73c | 25.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 73c | 25.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…28b8backed Under | 74c | 21.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5this page
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. FC Machida Zelvia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5Under won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)Kawasaki Frontale won
- Spread: Kawasaki Frontale (-1.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.