Asian League · resolved market
Kawasaki Frontale vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc50dca50a4a26e9218d3dcd338cc84611ae84d2c18251c054f66538d398cbf0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x912a…2e6abacked Under | 50c | 12,525$6,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,264.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 64c | 3,433$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.7 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 2,185$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.82 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 2,024$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.82 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Over | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Over | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 36c | 1,159$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.47 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e8…b283backed Over | 48c | 994.78$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 956.96$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.03 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 47c | 750.62$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.59 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Over | 50c | 592$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Over | 50c | 460$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 50c | 454$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.44 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 66c | 368.26$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.93 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 61c | 345.62$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.48 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…dfcebacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 50c | 298.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Over | 50c | 260$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Over | 50c | 260$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…1db8backed Under | 63c | 255.16$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 30c | 233.07$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 50c | 201.96$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 48c | 199.96$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.98 | 136 | 31.6%43 W · 93 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 72c | 198.99$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 36c | 163.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Over | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Over | 50c | 156$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Over | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…aa08backed Under | 55c | 121.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 14c | 107.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 40c | 95.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Over | 50c | 68.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Over | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 45c | 62.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 117 | 64.1%75 W · 42 L | +11.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 52c | 62.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 143 | 49.7%71 W · 72 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 46c | 54.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…a968backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 51c | 50.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed Under | 62c | 48.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…6ef0backed Under | 64c | 47.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed Over | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…b9d1backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf30…930fbacked Under | 50c | 30.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 73c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…af73backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08cd…4edbbacked Over | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5this page
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. FC Machida Zelvia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5Under won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)Kawasaki Frontale won
- Spread: Kawasaki Frontale (-1.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.