Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0517b2da5899daca9b9b0af4f5b58b20e81a45a3bcd2b23ea22a25114e06d135
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a4c…0d95backed Yes | 1c | 1,020$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 39c | 533.47$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.38 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 32c | 432.89$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.07 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x007d…ffbebacked Yes | 40c | 354.55$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.49 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 50c | 315.88$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.52 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 36c | 308.46$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.45 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82eb…efe0backed No | 77c | 305.73$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 29c | 257.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 17c | 240$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 26c | 230.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6530…d760backed Yes | 14c | 221.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 216.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 63c | 211.44$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.15 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 7c | 187.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 25c | 174.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 18c | 165.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 17c | 155.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…3cfcbacked Yes | 26c | 137.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 15c | 131.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…4409backed Yes | 14c | 130.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 22c | 130.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…bed9backed Yes | 25c | 127$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 74c | 126.59$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.11 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 19c | 123.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed No | 62c | 122.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 116.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 75c | 115$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 113.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 26c | 108$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab94…6a3fbacked Yes | 33c | 107.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…ecb6backed Yes | 19c | 106.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 36c | 103.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 28c | 100.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 69c | 95.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 36c | 88.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 50c | 88.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 23c | 79.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 20c | 79.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 32c | 77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed No | 79c | 73.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 29c | 72.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 80c | 69.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 42c | 69.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 25c | 69.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef1a…319dbacked Yes | 17c | 64.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 49c | 64.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 62.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…588dbacked Yes | 40c | 57.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…5391backed Yes | 34c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 55.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 31c | 53.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f15…1277backed Yes | 26c | 51.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 79c | 50.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 20c | 50.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 24c | 47.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 64c | 45.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed Yes | 66c | 44.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bb…0bb6backed Yes | 26c | 42.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 31c | 42.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 75c | 42.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…ec7fbacked Yes | 78c | 38.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce6a…a8d1backed Yes | 32c | 36.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 68c | 36.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed No | 75c | 34.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 33.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed Yes | 38c | 32.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…b2adbacked Yes | 36c | 31.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…a01fbacked No | 62c | 26.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26e1…4e79backed Yes | 42c | 24.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392e…1fbdbacked Yes | 58c | 24.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 64c | 23.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd639…18b9backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x943a…8234backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 75c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 80c | 14.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.