Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x051f12ec6c4a0728f401c30343f4debbd38e347ed0d01d9a9bc2f000ee07e7f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 2,619$1,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,595.47 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 2,333$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.62 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 1,492$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.08 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073f…ed92backed Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 748.08$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.56 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 50c | 509.39$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.58 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 16c | 500$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.38 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…388ebacked Over | 44c | 346.2$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.87 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 50c | 325$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 44c | 153.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.13 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 50c | 147$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 51c | 98.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 96.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Over | 50c | 76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 51c | 55.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 28c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…e9f7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.