Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c6b60a094958ed0d8666585e11ed8715e2ddaeb63d8e98fb0c237fe266743ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 4,453$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.62 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 76c | 1,349$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.81 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed Over | 43c | 1,000$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 995.92$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.68 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 43c | 703$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.01 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 57c | 554.58$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.2 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 39c | 500$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.54 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 65c | 276.62$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 24c | 257.24$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 73c | 252.86$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 59c | 182.17$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Over | 76c | 162$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 47c | 117$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed Under | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Under | 58c | 103.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cf…3f01backed Over | 76c | 96.95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Over | 63c | 87.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 83.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 28c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 53c | 65.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Over | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 41c | 40.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda8c…47eabacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…3296backed Over | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 43c | 34.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Under | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…0e8abacked Over | 76c | 29.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c7…f049backed Over | 76c | 28.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 61c | 28.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…1b85backed Over | 59c | 22.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 62c | 16.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.