Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x052d6763b803a5c9805aa5ad4fd1eed928c9fb30c688cba84020bc9e347c52e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fdd…dc1ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,024$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,085$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 343.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 8c | 331.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 8c | 316.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 11c | 290.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 239.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 19c | 202.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…0d85backed Yes | 19c | 194.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 16c | 176.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 80c | 168.69$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 7c | 165.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 150.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 20c | 142.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 136.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 19c | 130.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 19c | 128.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 21c | 126.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 20c | 120.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 10c | 111.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 15c | 106.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 14c | 100.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…b31ebacked Yes | 27c | 100.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…aba8backed Yes | 13c | 99.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 13c | 98.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…e158backed Yes | 16c | 95.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 20c | 89.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 15c | 88.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 14c | 83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…9747backed Yes | 24c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed Yes | 20c | 53.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 26c | 45.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a5…dc22backed No | 78c | 29.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.