TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,191
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,233

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,191 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes38c691.32$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.896,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbc0…1843backed No70c624.45$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.314372%103 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No49c479.45$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.342,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No17c430.15$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3860121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes42c425.6$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.74,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No65c344.2$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.021,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes48c330.3$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.3823823.9%57 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick24cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf607…7ca0backed Yes65c327.2$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.784632.6%15 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c293.61$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.2617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d0b…10cbbacked Yes54c243.17$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.752330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No12c232.39$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9886050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No20c221.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.51,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No46c220.64$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes36c172.37$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.381,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cb6…2ff6backed No14c172.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.879943.4%43 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No54c144.59$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.634,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes34c143.18$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.4325725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f6a…3774backed No10c135$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes36c118.92$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.659,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes51c116.76$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2132444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes44c114.73$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.735633.9%19 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes26c111.11$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.761,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes57c109.92$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8516832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd75c…fd4ebacked No63c105.5$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.335232.7%17 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc921…d6f3backed No61c105.2$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0615339.9%61 W · 92 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes36c101.03$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.088432.1%27 W · 57 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes66c89.72$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2949941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x487d…6813backed Yes43c88.79$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.296142.6%26 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes35c83$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.221,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c1b…a999backed Yes54c70.94$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.662152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6793…1869backed Yes36c69.03$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0331564.8%204 W · 111 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes71c65$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.916634.9%58 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No65c61.77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.93,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fdd…dc1ebacked Yes79c61.68$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.91030%3 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes21c61.64$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.756721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes37c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.810732.7%35 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1203…3947backed No65c59.97$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7315639.7%62 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e9…780dbacked Yes29c59.23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.795313.2%7 W · 46 L-6.1wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-29.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes32c58.5$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.923,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes28c58.48$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.247,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0514…4fefbacked Yes36c50.67$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4319531.3%61 W · 134 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes21c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.594919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x129c…0085backed Yes40c49.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.525251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes45c49.04$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.931,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes26c46.15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.156445.3%29 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No55c45.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x349d…155cbacked Yes33c45.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.724334.9%15 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Yes66c45.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2313554.8%74 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe768…10efbacked Yes70c42.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8611355.8%63 W · 50 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5652…2aa5backed Yes49c40.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.816157.1%92 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No64c40.26$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.891,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.166141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b3…f0bebacked Yes66c39.96$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.598270.7%58 W · 24 L+7.0wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a05…8573backed No40c39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.793268.8%22 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+25.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No72c37.65$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2829558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86d3…da78backed Yes51c37.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5226533.2%88 W · 177 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No31c36.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.141,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x88e2…d474backed No39c35.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.916639.2%65 W · 101 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No61c34.81$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.351,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb4…695fbacked No58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205773.7%42 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed Yes42c32.34$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8916944.4%75 W · 94 L+18.5wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc1be…6471backed Yes63c31.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.638861.4%54 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes50c31.4$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x437d…59e5backed Yes39c28.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No71c27.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.112,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes46c24.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1515047.3%71 W · 79 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6390…9bf0backed No64c22.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.575154.9%28 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd354…4d78backed Yes69c21.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7410132.7%33 W · 68 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x192a…b0a6backed No68c21.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6220150.7%102 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No66c20.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a39…acc7backed Yes53c20.39$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.589160.4%55 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No73c20.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.853,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.51,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No61c19.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes71c18.48$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4498160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No68c17.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0424149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4c3…4613backed No64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107777.9%60 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.459046.7%42 W · 48 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No77c13.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.041,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.