Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf29b9ff889d7466ef66f909a5c60c65e436ebb2f1beb2fae641b918bc53425a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 691.62$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 78c | 360$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 21c | 355.06$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 352.92$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 38c | 330.44$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.4 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 13c | 240.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 211.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 79c | 188.14$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 33c | 186.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 184.92$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…bb51backed No | 79c | 177.95$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…d802backed Yes | 26c | 171.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 29c | 167.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 27c | 166.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 28c | 150.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 79c | 132.47$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 52c | 123.15$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 122.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 28c | 117.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 111$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 41c | 106.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 78c | 97.89$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 18c | 90.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd865…4778backed No | 70c | 83.24$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 26c | 83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 23c | 78.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 78.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 25c | 75.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked No | 57c | 72.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed Yes | 28c | 71.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed No | 71c | 70.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 50c | 70.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 26c | 69.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 66.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b33…b345backed Yes | 26c | 64.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed Yes | 24c | 64.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 58c | 64.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 48c | 62.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 59.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 52c | 58.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 36c | 48.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 29c | 48.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 24c | 47.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 47.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 63c | 45.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 55c | 45.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 45c | 44.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 34c | 43.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 62c | 40.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 37c | 39.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 75c | 38.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 44c | 33.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 46c | 32.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 37c | 32.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…dc1ebacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 64c | 31.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 39c | 30.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 23.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 68c | 21.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 20.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…f13abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 79c | 18.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 17.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 16.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.