Champions League · resolved market
Will Qarabag vs. Ferencvaros end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x053ef16df9f813a9be07df779c1855d629dc00986c65858213d45c2de332b89e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 35c | 1,967$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 27c | 1,263$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.9 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 68c | 1,066$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.85 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 73c | 998.63$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.63 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 26c | 829.34$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.63 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 73c | 646.1$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.2 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 69c | 578.45$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.75 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 74c | 507$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.82 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed No | 55c | 255$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.75 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 13c | 214.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 56c | 184.96$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 27c | 183.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 63c | 170.07$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.37 | 1,487 | 40.3%599 W · 888 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581a…8e5fbacked No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 26c | 146.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…c742backed Yes | 30c | 113.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40f…2fa3backed Yes | 32c | 103.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 41c | 57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2d…2d55backed Yes | 23c | 55.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a64…cd34backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd73…f7adbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Qarabag vs. Ferencvaros end in a draw?this page
- Will Ferencvaros win on 2025-08-27?Yes won
- Will Qarabag win on 2025-08-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.