Serie A · resolved market
Cagliari Calcio vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x056aa2a17f31f0dfc9a9a69330f92bfe31a6513a246c185e71ac8d040cebaeb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 70c | 1,162$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.86 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 980.47$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.38 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 69c | 500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 31c | 483.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.87 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 38c | 370$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.49 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 68c | 105.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.71 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 67c | 89.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 339 | 51.6%175 W · 164 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 44c | 86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7836…33d4backed Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ba82backed Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 26.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Over | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Over | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Over | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ac…de06backed Under | 67c | 18.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5this page
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-1.5)Genoa CFC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.