Mls · resolved market
Will Los Angeles FC vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0592a31da0f0f91ad2ebc618ff1d67012a5ce3d5088e8b7f343d1e25ec991773
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,711 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 20c | 21,339$4,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,267.82 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 80c | 3,366$2,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.2 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 3,187$2,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.68 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 18c | 2,313$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.08 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 80c | 2,200$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 80c | 937.5$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Yes | 18c | 712.46$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Yes | 49c | 409.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…e72bbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 80c | 191.39$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 25c | 128.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 80c | 119.76$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 79c | 106.36$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 47c | 97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 76c | 87.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed No | 80c | 85.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 79c | 76.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked No | 80c | 61.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 80c | 57.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 66c | 53.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked No | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 30c | 45.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed No | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…a916backed No | 80c | 43.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 32c | 31.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…b8d3backed No | 80c | 21.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 53c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Los Angeles FC vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw?this page
- Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-03-14?Yes won
- Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-03-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.