Tennis · resolved market
Cervia: Federico Arnaboldi vs Carlo Alberto Caniato
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x059e971f7ac8307d05065b03d538bf0b39494417d5c3a8694c2720c0ea5cec3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carlo Alberto Caniatoof Federico Arnaboldi, Carlo Alberto Caniato
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0979…8d9bbacked Carlo Alberto Caniato | 55c | 6,949$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,098.76 | 147 | 57.1%84 W · 63 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Federico Arnaboldi | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.1 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Federico Arnaboldi | 25c | 1,570$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.21 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Federico Arnaboldi | 44c | 1,032$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.96 | 3,711 | 45.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…3ee0backed Federico Arnaboldi | 5c | 1,014$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Federico Arnaboldi | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 856 | 34.2%293 W · 563 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Federico Arnaboldi | 16c | 939.86$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.18 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Federico Arnaboldi | 32c | 715.94$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.48 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Federico Arnaboldi | 15c | 659.9$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 4,760 | 49.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L | +176.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…235bbacked Federico Arnaboldi | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 204 | 12.7%26 W · 178 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Carlo Alberto Caniato | 80c | 385.37$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Carlo Alberto Caniato | 49c | 376.31$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.92 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Federico Arnaboldi | 21c | 354.81$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 248 | 37.1%92 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Federico Arnaboldi | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 345 | 49.9%172 W · 173 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Federico Arnaboldi | 47c | 219.91$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.76 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Federico Arnaboldi | 44c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 2,275 | 42.7%972 W · 1,303 L | +33.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Carlo Alberto Caniato | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Carlo Alberto Caniato | 51c | 147.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Federico Arnaboldi | 46c | 146.81$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 252 | 45.2%114 W · 138 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Federico Arnaboldi | 46c | 145.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Federico Arnaboldi | 44c | 145.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf753…bcfebacked Federico Arnaboldi | 19c | 139.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 537 | 36.9%198 W · 339 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Federico Arnaboldi | 47c | 117.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 574 | 47.7%274 W · 300 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Federico Arnaboldi | 46c | 113.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 988 | 41.3%408 W · 580 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Federico Arnaboldi | 14c | 73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Carlo Alberto Caniato | 79c | 58.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Carlo Alberto Caniato | 69c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 683 | 38.2%261 W · 422 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a5…2756backed Federico Arnaboldi | 21c | 56.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Federico Arnaboldi | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Federico Arnaboldi | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Carlo Alberto Caniato | 69c | 52.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Carlo Alberto Caniato | 71c | 50.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,785 | 48.7%869 W · 916 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Carlo Alberto Caniato | 72c | 45.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Federico Arnaboldi | 44c | 40.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 2,521 | 38.4%969 W · 1,552 L | +93.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Federico Arnaboldi | 43c | 33.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Federico Arnaboldi | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Federico Arnaboldi | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2,135 | 56%1,195 W · 940 L | +41.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ba81backed Federico Arnaboldi | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 474 | 31.9%151 W · 323 L | -21.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Carlo Alberto Caniato | 56c | 28.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Carlo Alberto Caniato | 51c | 27.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 2,440 | 51.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…6f1bbacked Federico Arnaboldi | 51c | 25.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Carlo Alberto Caniato | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…dd64backed Carlo Alberto Caniato | 54c | 19.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.