Tennis · resolved market
Shelton vs. Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05c3e81bb441d963494c8d6175fa17bf2609b4de600a2ea6a19c978e9293766c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under 2.5 | 0c | 6,525$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 523.01$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.65 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 477.03$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.05 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf341…b5f6backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ae…6bc8backed Over 2.5 | 63c | 396.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1da…0370backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 228.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.64 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Over 2.5 | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Under 2.5 | 37c | 98.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x795f…1871backed Over 2.5 | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…e0d7backed Over 2.5 | 65c | 92.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2149…3a74backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 45.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…91acbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 43.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Under 2.5 | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 35.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 103 | 72.8%75 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…2b7abacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 27.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…1596backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 24.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 18.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shelton vs. Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Ben Shelton vs Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime won
- Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Auger-AliassimeShelton won
- Shelton vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Shelton vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Shelton vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Shelton vs. Auger-Aliassime: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Shelton vs. Auger-Aliassime: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Shelton (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5)Auger-Aliassime won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.