Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Sutjeska Nikšić vs. FK ML Viciebsk: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05dca477d2ad95e63ab408ada039d015e07f879d5fc21f957af733349a4c6e20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 34c | 14,750$5,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,734.93 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 66c | 8,367$5,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,522.01 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Under | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 68c | 1,913$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.22 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 1,501$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.83 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 63c | 1,383$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.36 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 53c | 1,094$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.55 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 66c | 625$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.5 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 53c | 570.36$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.81 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 63c | 568.26$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.85 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Under | 66c | 334.67$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.88 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Under | 66c | 278.61$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.88 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 34c | 234.72$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.92 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +11.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Under | 66c | 147$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 12c | 137.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Under | 66c | 134$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Under | 66c | 133.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 66c | 119.24$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 60c | 103.37$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Under | 66c | 86.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 62c | 75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 62c | 75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 62c | 74.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Under | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 83 | 16.9%14 W · 69 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Under | 66c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a6…7a2cbacked Under | 64c | 43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 26c | 39.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…fe8abacked Under | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Over | 57c | 18.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Under | 66c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Sutjeska Nikšić vs. FK ML Viciebsk: O/U 1.5this page
- FK Sutjeska Nikšić vs. FK ML Viciebsk: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FK Sutjeska Nikšić vs. FK ML Viciebsk: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FK Sutjeska Nikšić vs. FK ML Viciebsk: O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Sutjeska Nikšić vs. FK ML Viciebsk: O/U 3.5Under won
- FK Sutjeska Nikšić vs. FK ML Viciebsk: Team to AdvanceFK ML Viciebsk won
- Spread: FK Sutjeska Nikšić (-2.5)FK ML Viciebsk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.